Understanding the Recent Rise in Cryptocurrency Prices

Posted on 26/10/2023 | 745 Views

The Bitcoin bulls have been in full force, demonstrating their strength and resolve in pushing prices to these notable levels.

The derivatives market has played a significant role in this price movement, with a series of short squeezes closing 60k BTC (yes, 60k BTC units) in futures positions and a surge in options call open interest by $4.3B, signalling a strong bullish sentiment. Interestingly, long-term holders have remained largely unfazed by this recent flurry of activity. The Long-Term Holder supply has reached new all-time highs, and with revived supply volumes staying low, it indicates that there is limited selling pressure from this cohort. This behaviour from long-term investors adds a layer of stability to the market, further bolstering the optimistic outlook for Bitcoin's price trajectory.

Technical Analysis of Recent Surge

The technical landscape for Bitcoin has shown impressive strength, with a significant breakthrough overcoming resistance at a cluster of long-term simple moving averages around $28k. This feat was achieved after a month of gradual increases, successfully breaching the 111-day, 200-day, and 200-week averages. Such technical milestones are pivotal, as they underscore the robustness of the current market trend and provide a solid foundation for future growth.

In the derivatives market, two major short-squeezes were witnessed, resulting in the closure of futures positions equivalent to 60k BTC, and a surge in options call open interest by $4.3B. These events have undoubtedly contributed to the upward price momentum, further fueling the optimistic market sentiment. Long-term holders have showcased their unwavering confidence in the face of this volatility, maintaining or even increasing their holdings, reaching new All-Time Highs in Long-Term Holder supply. The negligible levels of revived supply volumes speak volumes about their strong conviction and minimal inclination to sell.

The overall investor sentiment has been buoyed by the general appreciation of holdings due to BTC's rally. The bulls have displayed remarkable strength and control, successfully overcoming significant resistance levels. These developments collectively paint a picture of a resilient market, pulsating with positive momentum. Long-term investors' sustained confidence and the technical breakthroughs achieved offer promising signals for a healthy market outlook, laying down a solid groundwork for future prosperity in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Future Markets Insights

A sharp observation reveals a noticeable decline in open interest, with a drop of approximately 25k BTC on the 17th of October, marking a significant 8.3% reduction. This trend continued, culminating in a second major leverage washout of 35k BTC on the 23rd of October. It is noteworthy that this substantial washout coincided with the market rallying to new yearly highs, reaching an impressive $35k. This parallel movement between leverage washout and market highs paints an intriguing picture of the market’s inner workings.

The magnitude of the current leverage squeeze is substantial and warrants attention, bearing a comparative similarity to previous short-squeezes in January and long-squeezes in August. These occurrences highlight the need for a deeper understanding of the long-term impacts on market stability and investor behaviour. As we move forward, it becomes increasingly important to delve deeper, to affirmatively determine if derivatives are indeed the primary driver behind these market movements. This focus on perpetual swap markets not only provides us with a clearer picture of the current market conditions but also lays the groundwork for more informed investment decisions in the future.


Short Squeeze Cleans Up Market

On the 17th and 23rd of October, the market witnessed a substantial cleansing, with short positions being liquidated en masse.

Starting, the 17th saw an initial $56M in short positions wiped off the board, setting the stage for what was to come. Just a few days later, the market experienced a more pronounced shake-up with a whopping $125M in short positions being liquidated on the 23rd. Together, these events didn't just represent isolated incidents; they marked a significant volume of liquidations within the broader context of the 2023 market.

These back-to-back liquidations served as a clear testament to the market's robustness and vitality, reinforcing the belief in its ability to self-correct and maintain equilibrium. For investors and market enthusiasts alike, these developments are encouraging, serving as tangible proof that the crypto space is continuously evolving and maturing.


Bitcoin's Price Triumph and Market Optimism

As we culminate our analysis, it's evident that Bitcoin has hit a significant stride, surpassing yearly highs and settling comfortably at $35k. The market didn’t just rise; it soared, breaking above crucial levels including the formidable $30k, and surpassing both the 200-day and 200-week averages. This isn’t just growth; it's a robust market rally.

Digging deeper into technical and on-chain indicators, we see that prices have gracefully moved above both technical averages and crucial on-chain indicators like the True Market Mean Price and the Short-Term Holder cost basis. What does this mean for the average investor? A considerable segment of the market is now basking in profitability, with the average break-even price hovering around $28k.

Looking ahead, the current price movement is not just a temporary blip; it lays a solid groundwork for a continuation of 2023’s upward trend. Investor psychology has been significantly impacted, likely anchoring at these newly conquered key levels. As we navigate the weeks ahead, it will be pivotal to keep a keen eye on the market, ready to identify potential shifts or confirmations in this promising trend.